<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8" standalone="yes"?>
<rss version="2.0" xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom">
  <channel>

    <title>Applied Ecosystem Services, LLC</title>
    <link>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/</link>
    <description>Recent commentary from Applied Ecosystem Services, LLC.</description>
    <lastBuildDate>Sun, 05 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000</lastBuildDate>
    <atom:link href="https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/index.xml" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
    <item>
        <title>Preparing For Change</title>
        <link>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/prepare-for-change/</link>
        <pubDate>Sun, 05 Mar 2023 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><guid>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/prepare-for-change/</guid>
        <description>&lt;p&gt;Climate warming, unpredictable weather, and other factors that you cannot
control could harm your business&amp;rsquo;s profitable sustainability.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Understanding environmental science and regulatory permits and compliance
provide you with the knowledge and tools to quickly adapt to these changes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Acting now is especially important because the future is uncertain and the
present is constantly changing. Avoiding environmental permit compliance
actions is much better than resolving them after they appear.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;!-- more --&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This commentary explains environmental science as it affects compliance with
regulatory permit conditions and helps you defend against litigation alleging
your operation adversely effects the natural environment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Environmental regulatory science is the science applied to regulations
implementing compliance with federal laws such as the Clean Water Act,
Comprehensive Environmental Response and Liability Act, Endangered Species
Act, National Environmental Protection Act and all the others. When your
business or operation requires an environmental permit and compliance with
permit conditions you need to understand how the regulators make decisions
because you are directly affected by their decisions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Environmental science is applied ecology, how plants and animals interact with
their local environments, aquatic and terrestrial. These interactions are
influenced by geography, terrain, geology, chemistry, and biology and
observations and measurements are analyzed using models, primarily
statistical, and interpreted using established ecological theories. Not only is
environmental science complex but it&amp;rsquo;s not taught well.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is always too little data available to regulators, primarily because
most data are collected by permit holders complying with their permit
conditions and these might require only one to four samples each year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Environmental data differ from other types of data, such as business,
financial, and economic. For example, chemical concentrations can never be
negative and toxic metals and organic compounds are commonly present in very
low concentrations, and often in such low concentrations that they cannot be
detected or quantified. Biological data are counts, not continuous values, and
their absence from observation or counting does not mean they are not present
at that location, only that they were not observed or heard. These, and other
differences mean that the models used to analyze them must be suitable for the
data constraints.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Another factor in environmental regulatory science is the different needs of
regulators and the regulated public.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Environmental regulations are supposed to address requirements of the laws and
statutes to which they apply. Agency staffers don&amp;rsquo;t need to be chemists,
biologists, or other field scientists because the agency has manuals that
specify the specific steps and methods applied to making permitting and
compliance decisions. Agency staffers, like all employees, act to maintain
their employment so they focus on documenting compliance with the steps and
actions specific to their jobs. How their actions and decisions affect your
business or job is not their concern.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;On the other hand, you are concerned with sustainability of your job,
operation, or business. Costs, time, and effort are always limited and you
don&amp;rsquo;t know all the details, agency politics, and personal agendas that
influenced regulatory decisions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The results of this conflict of interests can result in poor communications
between you, the permit holder, and regulatory agency staff.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
    </item>
    
    <item>
        <title>Sustainable Development Metrics</title>
        <link>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/sustainable-development-metrics/</link>
        <pubDate>Sun, 26 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><guid>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/sustainable-development-metrics/</guid>
        <description>&lt;p&gt;How to measure sustainability comes up frequently in conversations among
mining professionals. Questions asked include what protocol or algorithm
should be used, and what measures should to be included. A lot of serious
thought has been given this subject by experienced and insightful
environmental managers. Yet there is still discomfort that the lists of
measures or the procedure to be used may not be &amp;ldquo;correct.&amp;rdquo;&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Sport analogies may help you understand a solution process in which you can
have full confidence. Consider fly fishing: you don’t use the same fly for
cutthroat trout in a small, high gradient stream as you would for brown trout
in the lower reaches of a different river. When you’re fishing makes a
difference, too. Most fishermen ask at a local shop before they wade into the
stream what the fish currently seem to like to hit. Or, consider golfing
(perhaps a sport to which most miners can better relate): why carry irons from
#3 through #9, or different wedges, or fairway woods? Because each club has
characteristics best suited to distance from the goal (the cup), position on
the fairway, obstacles between the ball and the goal, and our abilities to
optimally use a particular club. Different locations, goals, and local
environments in these analogies dictate how we approach what we want to
accomplish.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The same approach can be used to effectively measure sustainability. Rather
than deciding in advance what specific measures (metrics) to use in any
specific situation, ask the potentially affected stakeholders, local
populations, regulators, and governments what factors are important to them
for the project under consideration at the current time and location. Think of
it as gaining expert insight, advice, or suggestions that help you reach your
goal.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To refine your approach and focus discussions on the most suitable
measurements, divide the discussion into consideration of factors in each of
the economic, natural, and societal environments. Everyone has concerns in
each environmental category, but their priorities of relative importance vary
widely. If you apply a process that allows you to quantify these local values
and beliefs, then your results are even more robust and can be used over time
to re-assess how you are doing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;ldquo;Sustainability&amp;rdquo; is a linguistic variable that has no consensus definition. It
is no longer adequate to describe it as a process because we can quantify it
if we take the appropriate approach and measurements. As a concept it has
become important enough in successfully permitting, operating, and closing
mines that it deserves to be evaluated in a process that is both technically
sound and legally defensible.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
    </item>
    
    <item>
        <title>Streamlining NEPA Compliance</title>
        <link>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/streamlining-nepa-compliance/</link>
        <pubDate>Sun, 19 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><guid>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/streamlining-nepa-compliance/</guid>
        <description>&lt;p&gt;When looking at streamlining the NEPA (National Environmental Policy Act)
process without reducing quality everything is open to reconsideration.
Quantifying subjectivity and reordering tasks can dramatically reduce the time
to produce a technically sound and legally defensible EIS and Record of
Decision (ROD), but there is more that can be done.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Data collection and numerical modeling offer opportunities to increase EIS
quality while decreasing the time involved. The data are used to characterize
existing environments and predict alternative future environments.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;!-- more --&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Existing environments characterized are economic, natural, and societal. These
are the baselines against which changes resulting from the various project
alternatives will be compared. Because alternatives are inexact forecasts of
future environments, as long as the baselines are reasonable they serve the
intended purpose. Where quantitative values are appropriate (where
measurements are meaningful) there could be variability on time scales from
hours to decades or longer. Since it is impossible to capture all this
variability we can take few measurements and base our characterization on
them. Rarely do we gain more insight or useful information by collecting data
for a year or more. When quantitative values are not appropriate (e.g.,
recreational opportunities, aesthetics, quality of life, environmental
justice) we can assign qualitative terms (some, many, high, good) on relative
scales.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Forecasting alternative future environments is highly qualitative. Mine life
is generally at least 10 years, and can easily be 100 years before the site is
mined out, every facility closed, and the entire area reclaimed. A lot will
happen in that time that cannot be predicted and accounted for in the
descriptions of the affected environments. Therefore, it is technically sound
to describe these alternative future environments relative to the existing
environment. Future components can be described as smaller, steeper, drier, or
fewer than currently exists. Making informed qualitative comparisons is also
less likely to be challenged on specific numeric values. Describing the
anticipated effects of the project alternatives qualitatively can be done
quickly, and include a range of technical expert opinions, compared with
trying to develop quantitative predictions based on models or Best
Professional Judgment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While the above may initially appear to be inadequate, they fit the purpose of
NEPA, particularly an EIS. The EIS is not used to determine whether the
project is approved, but to select the alternative that would avoid, minimize,
or adequately mitigate for any undesired negative impacts on the environments.
The subsequent operating permit is only one of many regulatory constraints on
the operator. Compliance with those permit stipulations and conditions, plus
any revisions justified when each is renewed, provide adequate adjustments to
the assumptions of the alternatives made before the project became
operational.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Since the EIS is used to make an informed decision based on forecasts
projected decades into the future, a high degree of quantitative accuracy
cannot be justified for the time and expense involved. Adjustments to changing
environments over the project life are made with renewed permits and
demonstration by the operator of compliance with those conditions.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
    </item>
    
    <item>
        <title>Storing Expensive and Valuable Environmental Chemistry Data</title>
        <link>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/store-valuable-environmental-data/</link>
        <pubDate>Sun, 12 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><guid>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/store-valuable-environmental-data/</guid>
        <description>&lt;p&gt;Environmental chemistry data are expensive to obtain and valuable and need
proper care in storage so they retain their value and return your investment
in them. Expenses start with permit application preparation and baseline
collections and continue through monitoring programs, analyses, and reporting.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The proper storage of environmental data is in an appropriately designed
database, but many organizations use spreadsheets instead because they are
readily available and easy for individuals to learn and use. Proper structure
and formatting of spreadsheets reduces duplication, facilitates organizing and
finding data, and promotes transfer to statistical analysis software.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are only a few required data attributes (the column headings):
collection location, collection date, constituent name, measured quantity, and
a quantification flag. Other information can be in additional columns but are
not required for regulatory reporting and operational insights analyses. The
rows in the spreadsheet contain all the information for a single set of
related attributes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Data format needs to be consistent. Dates, for example, should use the
International Standards Organization (ISO) format of YYYY-MM-DD (e.g.,
201304-01 for April 1, 2013). This ensures data will correctly sort regardless
of when or where it was entered. It also quickly identifies duplicate entries.
Censored data (those values whose concentrations – the signals – cannot be
distinguished from noise in in the analytical process) are reported in various
formats by laboratories; most often using the less-than (&amp;lt;) symbol with the
laboratory’s reporting limit for that sample. This means the quantity column
is treated at text by the spreadsheet and those cells cannot be used for
computations. This is where the quantification flag mentioned above is used to
fix this problem.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The ability to detect very low concentrations of chemicals varies by time
(methods and instruments are constantly improving), laboratory, specific
instruments, chemist, sample matrix, sample size and dilution, and other
factors. There are multiple names and definitions for the censored (unknown
value) data but a good general term is ’reporting limit.’ When you receive
laboratory results that show censored data by having the concentration number
preceded by a less-than symbol (&amp;lt;), enter only the number (the reporting
limit) in the quantity column and use the quantification flag column to
indicate it is a censored value. This flag is a binary, True/False, indicator.
For consistency with statistical software analyzing your data enter a value of
0 (zero) when the concentration is quantified (uncensored) and a value of 1
(one) when the concentration is below the reporting limit (censored). To make
it easy for everyone to remember these flag values name the column with a
reminder; for example, ’BRLeq1’ which means ’Below Reporting Limit equals 1’.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As your environmental chemistry data increase you will find different
reporting limits for the same constituent. Enter each one with the number
provided by the analytical laboratory. There are several ways of calculating
and plotting summary statistics and comparing groups with multiple reporting
limits. Depending on the concerns to be addressed, the highest reporting limit
alone can be used.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;These guidelines are a few of the ways to preserve the value of your
environmental chemistry data and facilitate the analyses which release the
maximum amount of information they contain.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
    </item>
    
    <item>
        <title>Endangered Species Act: Critical Habitats</title>
        <link>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/species-populations-habitats-opportunity-costs/</link>
        <pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2023 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><guid>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/species-populations-habitats-opportunity-costs/</guid>
        <description>&lt;p&gt;Natural resource operators are directly affected by habitat preservation
requirements for species listed under the ESA and state equivalents. One
possible explanation is that environmental decision-makers do not have
sufficient information, ecological training, or appropriate analytical tools
so they fall back on the precautionary principle and declare that all actual
and potential habitat for the species be left untouched for population
sustainability. This is both unnecessary and wasteful as there are robust
statistical and spatio-temporal models that can inform technically sound and
legally defensible decisions, even with limited data.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Species sustainability decisions require knowledge of population abundance,
distribution, and habitat use. This knowledge often comes from the likelihood
of the species being present but not observed in a habitat. The typical
methods for getting useful knowledge do not provide answers. For many species
presence or absence in a habitat plays a major role in determining whether an
operation is approved. Species presence/absence and counts estimate population
abundance and distribution and whether a specific habitat must be preserved.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;As an example: the Oregon spotted frog. It inhabits marshes with extensive
shallow water, abundant emergent or floating vegetation, and available food
resources. Marsh size 4 hectares (9 acres) or larger support sustainable
populations. The problem is detecting the frog during a visit to a marsh
possibly inhabited by the species.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Surveys for spotted frogs observed them only 80% of the time when they are
actually present. At one marsh, no spotted frogs were observed during a 2-hour
visit. How does this information determine presence/absence and, by
extrapolation, the frog’s overall abundance and distribution?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The usual approach is null hypothesis significance testing (NHST). The null
hypothesis is that the frog is absent; we want to determine the probability of
not observing the frog if the null hypothesis is true. The probability (p)
threshold is 0.05. If p &amp;lt; 0.05 the null hypothesis is rejected and the
alternate hypothesis (the frog is present) is accepted. This alternate
hypothesis is not tested or confirmed, only assumed to be true.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In this example, the p-value = 1.0; the probability no frog was observed if
it was absent. With such a high p-value rejecting the null hypothesis that the
frog was absent fails and the frog is assumed to have been present but not
observed. The alternative null hypothesis is that the frog was present. In
this case, the probability is 0.2 that it was not observed while actually
present. The NHST p-value of 0.02 means null hypothesis is rejected and the
frog recorded as being absent when it possibly was actually present.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The NHST approach can record the frog as present or absent depending on which
null hypothesis is used. This is because it asks, &amp;ldquo;What are the probabilities
of observing the data given that the various hypothesis are true?&amp;rdquo; No wonder
there is hesitation in making decisions. The better approach asks, &amp;ldquo;What are
the probabilities of the hypotheses being true given the observed data?&amp;rdquo; This
approach is based on existing knowledge as explained by Thomas Bayes, an
eighteenth-century English minister. This is the likelihood of an event given
another event. Since the Oregon spotted frog was observed in 80% of past
surveys we have a basis for determining the probability of observing a frog on
any given visit to a marsh.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For the spotted frog example, the likelihood that the frog was present but not
seen (0.2) and the likelihood the frog was absent (1.0) are weighted by their
respective prior probabilities. Further computation of probabilities determine
that the probability of frogs being present in this example marsh when they&amp;rsquo;re
not observed is 17%.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Comparing the two probabilities of the frog’s presence with the NHST
conflicting results strongly suggests the Bayesian approach better supports
operational, policy, and regulatory decisions. In this case, with only a 17%
likelihood of frogs using this marsh it might not be considered critical
habitat for spotted frog population sustainability.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The opportunity costs for decision-makers (operational, policy, and
regulatory) can be reduced by applying Bayesian methods to calculate species
population abundances, distributions, and habitats used because the decisions
are based on technically sound and legally defensible analytical methods.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
    </item>
    
    <item>
        <title>Nonpoint Source Pollution Regulation</title>
        <link>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/nonpoint-source-pollution-regulations/</link>
        <pubDate>Sun, 29 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><guid>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/nonpoint-source-pollution-regulations/</guid>
        <description>&lt;p&gt;Nonpoint source water pollution adversely impacting a beneficial use is
regulated by discharge allocations from a Total Maximum Daily Load. Whether a
waterbody requires a TMDL depends on how its condition is assessed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The Clean Water Act, as amended in 1987, specifies using environmental ambient
conditions to assess waterbodies, but regulators focus on single chemical ions
or compounds based on point source discharge regulations. The limitations of
this approach and the benefits of a different approach are explained here.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;!-- more --&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Understanding the assessment process helps you to avoid, or resolve, concerns
about your operations. Load allocations affect your permitted business
operations if it discharges storm water over a diffuse area, not from pipe
outfalls. For example, precipitation surface flows over crop lands, wood lots
and forests, dairies, feedlots and other confined animal feeding operations
(CAFOs), or mining operations with exposed soils.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Knowing how receiving waters are, and should be, assessed allows you to better
understand the relationship of your operations to adjacent and nearby
waterbodies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Regulators often struggle with waterbody assessments and it&amp;rsquo;s common for the
regulated public who are affected to be dissatisfied with the results.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You need to understand this process because assessments and resulting TMDLs
focus on specific chemicals in the water rather than the CWA objective of
restoring and maintaining the physical, chemical, and biological integrity of
the nation&amp;rsquo;s waters.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The 1987 revision of the CWA directed the EPA to develop and implement
regulatory programs for control of nonpoint sources of pollution based on
ambient waterbody conditions. States and tribes must assess water quality
status every two years to determine whether corrective TMDLs are needed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;A total maximum daily load, a TMDL, is the quantity of a chemical pollutant
determined by the regulator to be the most that can be discharged into the
waterbody ecosystem each day without adversely impacting a designated use.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The biannual water quality status assessments are the most important component
of the process because everything else depends on their scientific robustness.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Assessments are specific to a designated use in a comparatively homogeneous
area and are currently limited to a specific chemical pollutant rather than to
ecosystem ambient conditions. More on this point later.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;These issues make it difficult to determine a TMDL and effectively allocate
discharge limits to point and nonpoint dischargers. Recommendations for
increased effectiveness of the waterbody assessment process by incorporating
appropriate environmental science and data analyses were developed in 2001 by
the National Research Council. Not all states, nor the EPA, have implemented
all their recommendations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The focus of water quality laws was originally on human health, then gradually
broadened to include aesthetic uses such as “fishable and swimmable.” The 1972
CWA amendment expanded the goal to “restore and maintain the chemical,
physical, and biological integrity of the Nation&amp;rsquo;s waters.”&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Despite the 1987 amendments&amp;rsquo; re-focus on ambient conditions regulatory focus
has remained on point sources, the discharge of pollutants into receiving
waters at specific locations. However, there are pollutants entering
waterbodies from diffuse sources and hydrologic alterations that create
nonpoint source pollution. Applying point source effluent-based criteria to
nonpoint source discharges is highly problematic and ineffective.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are three major consequences from applying effluent-based, rather than
ambient-based, standards to diffuse nonpoint source pollution discharges.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, regulatory efforts to measure and communicate water quality status are
described in terms of permit conditions rather than the receiving water
condition. The two are not the same.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Second, effluent standards apply only to point sources. Pollutants from
nonpoint sources such as agricultural, silvicultural, and construction
activities largely escape oversight because they cannot be measured the same
way.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Third, chemical pollutants came to dominate water quality policy while
physical and biological determinants of the ambient condition were only
infrequently considered.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In non-urban areas the condition of a waterbody depends on more than the loads
of specified pollutants from sources discharging under a NPDES permit. For
example, changes in the hydrologic regime associated with residential and
industrial development activities can destabilize stream banks, increase loads
of sediments and nutrients, eliminate key aquatic species, or otherwise change
the aquatic ecosystem. Biological, hydrological, and physical changes to a
waterbody are included in the CWA&amp;rsquo;s definition of pollution.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Compliance with CWA Section 303(d) requires states to identify waters not
meeting ambient water quality standards in each assessment unit, define the
pollutants and pollution factors and their sources, establish total maximum
daily loads necessary to achieve those standards, and allocate daily loads to
all sources within the assessment area. Degradation factors that do not fit
the pollutant definition such as changes of habitat, flow alterations,
channelization, and modification or loss of riparian habitat may be considered
as reasons for not meeting standards and their effects on water chemistry must
be considered in the TMDL development process.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The assessment process needs to be explained in terms of established
biological and ecological theories as well as the appropriateness of
statistical models applied to the available data.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The TMDL process depends on observations and measurements, not experiments.
Therefore, it is greatly influenced by how water quality standards are
determined. Currently, water quality standards are maximum concentrations of
specific toxic metal ions or organic chemical compounds thought to be
protective of fish, wildlife, livestock, and human uses.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For example, rather than the too-broad concept of fishable and swimmable a
better description for a designated use of human contact recreation should
protect humans from microbial pathogens while swimming, wading, or boating.
A sufficiently detailed designated use might distinguish between beach use,
primary water contact recreation, and secondary water contact recreation.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Other designated uses should be defined to protect humans, wildlife, and
livestock from harmful substances in water and fish tissues. Specific aquatic
life designated uses should be designed to protect fish and shellfish. It&amp;rsquo;s
not only chemicals that need to be considered. Parasites and water temperature
can be of greater importance to fish survival, growth, and reproduction than
are the chemical constituent concentrations of the water.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;While one set of chemical concentration criteria could include acceptable
constituent measurements of inorganic and organic molecules, one constituent
alone is insufficient as animals living in the water (as well as human
fullbody contact) are affected by the entire composition of constituents
rather than a single one, or a small subset.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Biological criteria should be used along with physical and chemical criteria
to determine whether a assessment unit is meeting its designated use. The most
weight should be placed on biological criteria because they are most closely
related to the long term and fluctuating ambient conditions than are chemical
measurements.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Measurements of pollutants in surface and ground waters, sediments, and soils
are highly variable. Analyzing these observational data requires different
statistical models than do experimental, financial, and public data.
Statistical models in spreadsheets and basic stat courses taught in science
and business programs cannot produce valid results because they were designed
for non-environmental data. This means that the common frequentist
hypothesis-testing models can be used in only very limited situations with
environmental data.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With this background it&amp;rsquo;s time to look at how waterbodies are assessed for
compliance with the CWA goal.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;One state&amp;rsquo;s regulator says they use a statistical hypothesis testing approach,
a binomial test, to derive a critical number of sample excursions that scales
with the number of representative samples to evaluate beneficial use
attainment status of waterbodies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There is much wrong with this sentence.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The frequentist hypothesis testing approach was developed for use in analyzing
biological experimental results, comparing the frequency of a desired result
in a treatment group to that in a control group. It cannot apply to
environmental chemical data because neither one nor a set of constituent
concentrations can be assigned to a null or an alternative hypotheses. In
addition, the hypothesis testing approach cannot be applied to diffuse
pollution elements, such as habitat loss, channel alteration, or biotic
community structure and function in the assessment unit.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The binomial test is not a frequentist hypothesis test and cannot provide
correct water quality results.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;&amp;ldquo;Binomial&amp;rdquo; literally means two numbers. A binomial distribution shows the
number of successes (heads or tails) in a set of experiments such as flipping
a coin. All binomial tests of data ask a simple question, such as success or
failure, yes or no, true or false, present or absent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Chemical concentrations are continuous values, not integer counts. Neither a
concentration nor a set of concentrations can be characterized into yes/no,
success/failure, or true/false dichotomies.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition to the inappropriate application of frequentist hypothesis tests and
the binomial distribution the state uses other statistical models that have
assumptions not met by water quality data.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Telling you how a regulatory process produces incorrect results is only half
of my job. I need also to provide an alternative process because the
assessment results can put waterbodies on the TMDL implementation list when
they are not impaired based on complete ambient conditions.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Local biota reflect ambient water quality much better than do fluctuating
chemical constituent concentrations because the biota are there as water
chemistry varies within its natural range.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Fish are not found in every assessment unit, in all reaches of those they do
inhabit, and they move around a lot so they’re not suitable indicators of
ambient water quality. But, benthic macroinvertebrates, the animals living on
the waterbody’s substrate, are found almost everywhere along the river network
from the highest first-order streams to the mouth of the river, and in almost
all ponds, lakes, and reservoirs. Benthic macroinvertebrates include the
juvenile stages of insects, arachnids such as mites, snails, fresh water
mussels, worms, and other small animals. Their community composition remains
stable because their food resources are stable and characteristic of the
reach&amp;rsquo;s position within the river continuum.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Benthic macroinvertebrates are easily associated one of five principal feeding
strategies reflecting the primary type of food resource: shredders, filterers,
gatherers, grazers, and predators.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Because the primary source of food varies along the river continuum the
relative proportions of the five feeding strategies also varies. But, within a
limited assessment area the relative proportions remain quite constant
throughout the year.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Before determining whether a permitted activity has adverse impacts on a
specific designated use it&amp;rsquo;s necessary to quantify inherent natural
variability of functional feeding group compositions. By common acceptance,
all values within 95% of that variability range is accepted as normal.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When an assessment based on ambient conditions indicates the need for a
remedial TMDL a location-specific approach should be developed that is based
on established ecological, hydrological, and geomorphic theories.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;What I want you to remember are:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ol&gt;
&lt;li&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Ambient-based water quality standards include pollution as well as
chemical pollutants.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;
&lt;p&gt;For TMDL assessment units biota provide more technically sound and legally
defensible decisions than do chemical data, especially effluent-based
standards.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The assessment methods used, and how load allocations are assigned, must be
related to the CWA&amp;rsquo;s objective of ecosystem integrity.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ol&gt;
</description>
    </item>
    
    <item>
        <title>The Fate of Biological Data: Too Little Information</title>
        <link>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/fate-of-biological-data/</link>
        <pubDate>Sun, 22 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><guid>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/fate-of-biological-data/</guid>
        <description>&lt;p&gt;It is widely accepted that raw data need to be converted to information
(commonly by statistical analyses) and the results interpreted to form
knowledge before informed decisions can be made. With biological data this
process is not followed as frequently as it should. Modern spatial analyses
and statistical models can provide valuable and useful information that is
otherwise lost.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Biological data are counts, presence/absence, proportions, and frequencies.
They are not continuous variables with a true zero so the familiar
parametric statistics cannot be used. Sometimes the variable of interest is
an index such as species richness. Plant and animal data are dependent upon
location and time, including the time of day.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Three of the questions that collection and analysis of biologic data can
answer are: 1) Why is this plant or animal species (or community of species)
found at this location and time? 2) Where else is this species (or community)
located? 3) Why is this species (or community) not in this location that seems
similar to where we find it?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Answering these questions requires collection of known or likely explanatory
variables when the biotic data are gathered. Topographic, geologic, chemical,
hydrologic, basin and stream network topology are categories of known or
likely variables that influence the biota observed at any location and time.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In addition to modeling the interactions of these explanatory and response
variables in a graphical spatial analysis system, statistical models have been
developed to perform linear and non-linear regressions on categorical and
nominal data mixed with continuous data. Bayesian inference techniques allow
robust population estimates from mark and recapture studies of animals.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;These analytical techniques provide knowledge and insights not otherwise
available to operators, regulators, and other decision-makers. They can be
applied to evaluate grazing, logging, mining, energy production
(hydroelectric, geothermal, wind) and distribution (electrical transmission
lines, oil and gas pipelines), agricultural practices, and
reclamation/restoration programs.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Three examples briefly described illustrate the range of possibilities for
policy and operational decisions to be better based on science.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Wolves have been re-introduced into the Pacific northwest. They are found
around grazing cattle, particularly calves, and around deer and elk herds.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;But, are they evenly distributed or clumped? If the latter, what environmental
conditions can explain their distribution?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Salmonid recovery efforts in the Columbia and Salmon Rivers assume that if
dams are removed and other blocked habitats opened populations of the five
will become established. Will conditions in these areas be sufficiently
similar to river reaches with established populations to anticipate
re-population? Similarly, if a population of resident fish is present in a
stream with known water chemistry, why are they not present in a nearby
drainage with similar water chemistry?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Cheatgrass has become well established across western rangelands, from valley
floors to higher elevations. Yet the coverage is not uniform and may change
over time. What explanatory variables are associated with areas of high (or
low) cheatgrass coverage? If areal coverage declines (rather than expanding as
it has in the past), what conditions might explain this distributional change?&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The above do not preclude applying these analytical and statistical models to
baseline data for environmental impact assessments or demonstrating compliance
with environmental permit conditions. Instead of relying on &amp;ldquo;best professional
judgment&amp;rdquo;, diversity indices, and similar approaches to explaining biotic data
use of robust spatial analyses and statistical models result in
interpretations that are technically sound and legally defensible.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
    </item>
    
    <item>
        <title>Environmental Decision-Making in Uncertain Times</title>
        <link>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/environmental-decision-making/</link>
        <pubDate>Sun, 15 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><guid>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/environmental-decision-making/</guid>
        <description>&lt;p&gt;Every business complying with environmental laws can be profitable and
sustainable while operating environmentally responsibly.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Environmental aspects may not have the same importance to you as other
business aspects, but it&amp;rsquo;s under your control to avoid issues that can cost
time and money better spent elsewhere.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You should take action now to limit your risk of costly or damaging
environmental issues such as permit compliance enforcement. Acting now is
especially important because the future is uncertain and the present is
constantly changing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;!-- more --&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Every business required to comply with environmental laws and statutes can
be profitable and sustainable while operating environmentally responsibly.
This podcast episode explains what to adjust in your environmental program
so you can continue to prosper in uncertain futures.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Fifty-eight years ago Bob Dylan wrote and sang his song &amp;ldquo;The Times They Are
A-Changin&amp;rsquo;.&amp;rdquo; The lyrics apply very well to the world in which we now live: a
global COVID-19 pandemic, massive economic disruptions, and the changing
climate producing weather extremes including severe wildland fires, very high
temperatures, torrential precipitation, and drastically decreased surface and
ground water supplies. We&amp;rsquo;ve not before experienced all these changes
simultaneously so making decisions affecting our business&amp;rsquo;s future is
challenging.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Environmental aspects of a business may not have the same importance as do
market conditions, cost of production, and similar issues. This is
understandable because environmental science is not a part of business
training programs. Yet, businesses needing any environmental permit to operate
too often are unprepared to resolve concerns raised by regulators and others.
This lack of in-house environmental science expertise can have serious impacts
on the operation. It&amp;rsquo;s much better, and less expensive, to have an
environmental program that helps you avoid environmental issues regardless of
how &amp;rsquo;normal&amp;rsquo; changes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;You should take action now to limit your risk of costly or damaging
environmental issues such as permit compliance enforcement. Acting now is
especially important because the future is uncertain and the present is
constantly changing.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Environmental regulators&amp;rsquo; vested interest is documenting that they enforce
regulations that implement applicable laws and statutes; they protect their
agency. Environmental permit holders&amp;rsquo; vested interest is operating profitably
and sustainably; they protect their jobs and businesses. Frequently the two
are in conflict when they should have a common interest in sustainable,
environmentally-responsible, profitable business operations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When the applicable science is not understood by the public the result can be
administrative appeals, legal challenges that increase time and costs for the
permit applicant or holder. When the science is not well understood by
regulatory agency staff the result is commonly referred to as paralysis by
analysis.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To protect your business you need to understand how regulators and others
evaluate environmental aspects of your permit application or permit
compliance.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Basically, all environmental regulations ask three questions to assess
compliance with the relevant law or statute:&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;ul&gt;
&lt;li&gt;
&lt;p&gt;First, does (or will) the permitted activity adversely effect the
natural environment? This is forecasting.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Second, how does (or would) the operating activity degrade the natural
environment? This is cause and effect.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;li&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Third, are there synergistic or cumulative impacts from multiple
activities affecting the natural environment? This is spatio-temporal,
multi-variable interaction.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;/li&gt;
&lt;/ul&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Answering these questions requires relevant data properly analyzed. Permit
requirements for data collection address the regulator&amp;rsquo;s needs, not the permit
holder&amp;rsquo;s.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Environmental data never are as abundant or frequent as research data so the
analytical models applied are specific to these data limitations yet are
robust and provide technically sound and legally defensible results.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The environmental data your operations need are unique. What you do, how you
do it, and where you are located are different even from others in your
industry. Getting the data you need is not a major expense, but it must also
demonstrate your compliance with the applicable federal and state laws and
statutes.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;When your environmental management program is tuned to your specific needs,
and decision makers and stakeholders understand that the results are
technically sound and legally defensible, they are provided with answers to
their concerns.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Companies invest money collecting baseline and compliance monitoring data
beyond the minimal needs of the regulators so proper analyses are needed to
produce the return on investment that justifies the effort and expense.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;With proper planning, collection efforts, and analyses supporting regulatory
science can more than repay their cost by eliminating, or decreasing,
decision delays and quantifying the relationships of the permitted operation
to the natural environment. With global warming/climate change and societal
focus on sustainability, understanding a permitted operation&amp;rsquo;s relationship
to the natural environment is critical information for permit holders and
regulators.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
    </item>
    
    <item>
        <title>Effective Regulation of Water Quality</title>
        <link>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/effective-water-quality-regulations/</link>
        <pubDate>Sun, 08 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><guid>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/effective-water-quality-regulations/</guid>
        <description>&lt;p&gt;Current regulation of water quality, based on the statutes they implement,
fail to effectively describe the current state of water bodies. There are
historical and political reasons for this condition but no excuse to continue
as we have for the past almost 60 years. Our understanding of aquatic
ecosystems and the development of appropriate statistical models for
environmental data provide the means to more effectively regulate water
quality to benefit natural ecosystems and human health.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;!-- more --&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The concept of &amp;ldquo;health&amp;rdquo; does not apply to ecosystems, only to individual
animals. The water in a secondary treatment ponds at municipal sewage
treatment plant is not health for human consumption but is a robust,
well-functioning ecosystem for converting sewage into more benign water that
can be discharged into a receiving river. Rather than health of ecosystems we
should describe them in terms of current condition and desired future
condition.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Water quality today is defined by maximum concentration limits of individual
chemical constituents. Most often the focus is on toxic metals and organic
compounds such as pesticides, but also on multi-component constituents such as
total dissolved solids (TDS) and total suspended solids (TSS), visible as
turbidity or cloudiness of the water. This is unrealistic, even when there is
a list of such constituents because it is very rare for a regulator to
consider the entire composition rather than individual components. Consider
the human health example of a physician diagnosing a patient&amp;rsquo;s health based on
only temperature or blood pressure.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;In aquatic ecosystems every organism found at a specific location and at a
specific time is exposed to all the physical and chemical components of the
water and not just selected single ones. Basing regulatory decisions on one or
a few chemical constituents reveals nothing about the effects of the water on
the plants and animals found there. The animals (including freshwater mussels
and clams) will move to favorable locations instinctively.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Chemical samples collected for baseline or permit compliance monitoring are
snapshots in space and time. The fallacy of this approach was first written by
the Greek philosopher Heraclitus (535-547 BCE), &amp;ldquo;No man ever steps in the same
river twice, for it&amp;rsquo;s not the same river and he&amp;rsquo;s not the same man.” Taking a
single sample and extrapolating to longer times and more places has no
scientific support.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Because aquatic animals are mobile and found only where all components of the
water body are acceptable to them water quality statutes and regulations
should be based on extensive biological data (correctly analyzed) and not on
chemical data. (Potable water quality is distinct from general environmental
water quality and the latter is the focus of all non-drinking water
chemistry.)&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;There are many examples of Clean Water Act regulatory decisions that are not
based on technically sound and legally defensible science and statistics. With
climate changing more rapidly and noticeably than in the past, and water
resources becoming more unpredictable in the western U.S., changing how water
quality is managed has broad benefits politically, economically,
environmentally, and societally.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
    </item>
    
    <item>
        <title>Avoiding Permit Compliance Actions</title>
        <link>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/avoid-compliance-actions/</link>
        <pubDate>Sun, 01 Jan 2023 00:00:00 +0000</pubDate><guid>https://www.appl-ecosys.com/commentary/avoid-compliance-actions/</guid>
        <description>&lt;p&gt;Every business complying with environmental laws can be profitable and
sustainable while operating responsibly. Learning how to go beyond minimal
permit compliance requirements to avoid regulatory compliance enforcement
actions is as important as are other aspects of your job or operations when
you are responsible for environmental permits.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;!-- more --&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The rapidly warming climate and resulting more frequent and severe weather
patterns such as megadroughts, massive wildland fire, severe flooding, hotter
summers, and colder winters affect environmental permit holders in
unpredictable ways. To avoid permit compliance actions under these uncertain
conditions permit holders need to understand the context for environmental
regulations.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Congress passes environmental laws such as the Clean Water Act, National
Environmental Policy Act, and the Endangered Species Act and directs specific
federal agencies to enforce them. For water-related laws the EPA almost always
delegates enforcement to Tribes and States.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;State legislatures write their versions of the laws into statutes and the
state&amp;rsquo;s environmental regulatory agency creates regulations to comply with the
statutes. The regulatory agency&amp;rsquo;s sole responsibility is demonstrating to the
legislature that their permits comply with state statutes and that they
enforce permit holder compliance with permit conditions. They do not need to
prove harm or adverse impacts to landscapes, fish, wildlife, livestock, or
humans because the regulations assume permit conditions ensure no adverse
effects on the natural environment.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This assumption is seen in non-environmental regulations in daily life. For
example, having lower speed limits in school zones than in the surrounding
residential or commercial areas is intended to protect students who might pay
no attention to traffic when coming to and going from the school. This means
that when a school zone is marked for 20 mph from 7:00 AM to 5:00 PM when
schools are in session a law enforcement officer can ticket a car traveling at
any speed greater than 20 mph at all times between those even when there&amp;rsquo;s no
child, adult, or other vehicle present. It doesn&amp;rsquo;t matter that the intent of
the speed limit (to protect children outside the school) doesn&amp;rsquo;t apply. The
sign says 20 mph and any exceedance can result in a fine.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;Environmental regulations are enforced in the same way. If a point source
discharges storm waters that leave more sediment particles then allowed by a
permit condition along the receiving water&amp;rsquo;s banks the regulator can impose a
fine for harming ESA-listed fish habitat even if that reach of stream has no
such fish known to occupy it at any time in their life cycle.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;This is the background for the first principle for avoiding compliance
enforcement actions: you&amp;rsquo;re guilty unless you can prove you&amp;rsquo;re innocent.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The second principle for avoiding compliance enforcement actions is to accept
that permit conditions reflect the regulator&amp;rsquo;s response to the legislature,
not to your business or the local environment in which you operate.
Documenting your compliance with all permit conditions is insufficient to
effectively defend yourself when the local environment changes and in
litigation when your are sued by neighbors, an environmental NGO, or other
non-regulatory individuals or groups alleging your operations adversely affect
water quality, fish, or wildlife.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;To protect yourself in these uncertain future conditions you must move beyond
the minimal permit conditions and invest in a program that&amp;rsquo;s specific to your
operation and location; one that provides technically sound and legally
defensible documentation that your operation does not harm whatever the
regulator or litigant alleges. Think of this as environmental insurance; you
hope you never need it but are grateful you have it when it&amp;rsquo;s needed.&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p&gt;The third principle of avoiding compliance enforcement action is to use the
knowledge you gain about the local ecosystem&amp;rsquo;s dynamics and how your
operations interact with it. This allows you to quickly adjust to changing
conditions with minimal time, effort, and cost. Your environmental knowledge
can be as critical to your operation&amp;rsquo;s sustainability and profitability as are
your knowledge of resources, production, and markets.&lt;/p&gt;
</description>
    </item>
    </channel>
</rss>




